Recent increases in average pitching velocity have also likely affected which players can stick around. However, older players who can’t compensate find themselves out of baseball. Research shows that some older players can still perform because they are able to compensate with experience. One reason for decline in performance are changes in hand-eye coordination. On-base percentage peaks later than hitting ability, presumably as players get better at reading pitches and therefore earning walks. For example, doubles plus triples per-at-bat peaks 4.5 years later for Hall-of-Famers, which indicates that elite hitters continue to improve and maintain hitting skills while other players are in decline. Those who start with more skill – an All-Star like Harper, for example – maintain a better than average level of play longer, making them better candidates for long-term contracts.īradbury’s research determined that performance generally declines after 29, but not every facet. A player who is excelling at age 24 is likely to be improving into his late-20s/early-30s and then decline.”Įvery player’s skill set ebbs over time, with those requiring less physical ability peaking later, specifies Bradbury, but those of the best players have farther to fall than the average player. “Player quality is a much more important variable. “It is a mistake to pay too much attention to aging when looking at these players because aging is gradual,” he says. Researcher JC Bradbury, a sports economist at Kennesaw State, believes that the best players follow a different trajectory. Yet, even when not at their physical peak, some players are just better than others. As your body ages, you need to refine your training to be more efficient, more recovery based.” “Tom Brady is probably the best example of that in sports today. “You obviously can’t train the same way at 35 or 40 as when you were 25,” says Capuano. Maintaining that level of performance gets harder each season. A ballplayer needs to be incredibly disciplined about the way he takes care of his body and his mind throughout the year.” “The most difficult thing about baseball is the volume of games – 30 in Spring Training, 162 in the regular season, and potentially another 20 or so in the postseason. While not directly related to aging, players then have fewer opportunities to post big numbers on the back side of their careers, because they are more likely to have seasons cut short by injury.Ĭhris Capuano, a left-handed pitcher with 12 years of Major League experience, believes that one of baseball’s greatest challenges is the length of the season. Since the biggest risk of reinjury is a history of injury, minor problems can quickly turn into bigger ones, robbing a player of power and performance. Though he is younger than the average free agent, the 26-year old Harper has had his share of injuries – hip, knee, thumb, neck, shoulder – most notably a gruesome knee hyperextension in 2017 that was the result of slipping on a wet base. Or, of course, the result of the repetitive stress of throwing a ball 95mph or swinging a bat hundreds of times a day. In baseball, like other sports, injuries are difficult to prevent – collisions with other players, being hit by a pitch, or an awkward dive in the outfield, can all put a player on the disabled list (for the 2019 season, it’s now called the injured list). Herniated discs in his neck forced an early retirement.Īnd for players signed to these long-term deals, the longer the contract, the greater the likelihood that injury will ultimately strike. Prince Fielder – nine years, $214m: signed by the Detroit Tigers, traded to the Texas Rangers. Injuries, particularly foot problems, have diminished his production to the replacement player level over the past several seasons. Miguel Cabrera – 10 years, $275m: a herniated disc in his neck forced a premature end to the 2017 season and most of 2018 was lost to a torn biceps tendon.Īlbert Pujols – 10 years, $240m: given his age at signing, 32, this one might have been doomed from the start. Recent free agent history is full of such cautionary tales. ![]() Why? Well, 13 years is a long-time and life happens, namely injuries. Risk averse teams are increasingly reluctant to hand out large sums of money to players they don’t believe will deliver on the goods years down the line. But, for baseball, the concern hasn’t been over paying stupid money, but rather for paying stupid money for a stupid amount of time.
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